Luke Kemp, of the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University, wrote in a commentary for Nature that „withdrawal is unlikely to change U.S. emissions“ because „U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are disconnected from international legal obligations.“ He added, however, that this could hamper efforts to mitigate climate change if the United States ceases to contribute to the Green Climate Fund. Kemp said the impact of a U.S. exit could be good or bad for the Paris agreement, because „an unseraunted American president can do more damage inside than outside the agreement.“ Finally, „a withdrawal could also make the United States a climate pariah and provide China and the EU with a unique opportunity to take control of the climate regime and significantly strengthen their international reputation and soft power.“ [16] On the other hand, there is the belief that China is not in a position to take control of the climate regime and that it should instead „help rebuild global leadership by replacing the Sino-Chinese G2 partnership with a climate 5 (C5) partnership comprising China, the EU, India, Brazil and South Africa.“ [14] Trump`s exit from the Paris agreement will affect other countries by cutting financial assistance to the Green Climate Fund. [12] The end of US funding of $3 billion will have a final impact on climate change research and will reduce society`s chances of meeting the Paris Agreement goals and omit U.S. contributions to future IPCC reports. [13] [14] Trump`s decision will also affect CO2 emission space and carbon prices. [15] The withdrawal of the United States will also mean that the place where the global climate regime can be adopted will be accessible to China and the EU. [16] If the United States clashes with other countries at the next United Nations climate change conference in Glasgow next November, the emissions reduction target is expected to be even more ambitious than the Obama-era target.

The U.S. exit from the Paris accord and its withdrawal from national climate policy that the Trump administration plans to withdraw will increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by at least 3 percent by 2030 compared to current policy. Nevertheless, the CTU estimates that U.S. emissions will be 2% lower than we expected when Trump took office, 13% less than in 2005. Trump has not stopped the rapid decline of coal and the rise of renewable energy. Indeed, despite the weakening of the Clean Power Plan, the U.S. energy sector appears to exceed the CPC`s emission reduction targets.